What The Data Really Shows

For years, it has been conventional wisdom that Millennials and Generation Z are chronic job-hoppers, switching employers more often than previous generations. This belief has shaped recent conversations about hiring, retention, and employee benefits policy.

But a close look at decades of workforce data tells a very different story. Younger workers today are not unusually restless. Rather, their patterns closely resemble those of earlier generations when they were the same age.

The Data Tell a Consistent Story

A recent analysis from the National Institute on Retirement Security uses data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, the Employee Benefit Research Institute, and the Pew Research Center to compare job tenure, quit rates, and employee turnover across generations and industries. The results show remarkable consistency over time:

– Median tenure among 25–34-year-olds has been remarkably stable since 1983, with younger workers always changing jobs more frequently than older workers.
– Among college-educated workers aged 25–35, 75 percent of Millennials in 2016 had worked for their employer at least 13 months, which corresponds with 70–72 percent of similarly aged Generation Xers in 2000.
– There is some decline in median tenure among older workers, as benefits like pensions that promote long careers are less frequently offered.
– Two factors that are better predictors of turnover levels are labor market conditions and industry of employment.

Economic Cycles Drive Quit Rates

The analysis finds voluntary quits rise and fall with the strength of the job market. When employment levels are high, workers have more opportunities and likely more confidence in finding a new job, so quit rates rise. During downturns — such as the Great Recession of 2008 or during the early months of the COVID-19 pandemic — quit rates fell and then later rebounded.

There was a distinct and somewhat unusual pattern of quitting following the COVID-19 shutdown. The labor market during the pandemic was more complicated, with high levels of involuntary separations (layoffs or job losses, for example) early in the pandemic, along with health concerns about working in person. As the economy reopened, quits spiked, there was the “Great Resignation,” and much debate about whether this trend was a new normal.

In hindsight, it is possible that there was pent-up demand to change jobs. Not only did fewer workers quit in 2020 despite health concerns, but more than 15 percent of workers lost their jobs over two months when many businesses were forced to close operations. Surely, some workers switched to other jobs they normally would not have sought to continue earning income. Again, within a few years, quits returned to normal levels.

Different Industries Have Different Employment Patterns

Turnover patterns also vary dramatically across industries. Public-sector jobs, which often include defined benefit pensions and robust health coverage, tend to see lower quit rates and longer tenure. Think of the teachers, police officers, and firefighters who remain integral parts of their communities for decades. Their job longevity reflects the structure of public employment benefits.

If there is a data-driven reason to expect higher turnover today, it might be the decline in manufacturing jobs. Within the private sector, the manufacturing industry historically offered strong pay and good benefits to middle-class workers without a college degree. This resulted in job loyalty and longer careers, with quit rates typically between 10–20 percent annually. For comparison, this is roughly half the quit rate in the services and retail industries, which often have less generous salaries and benefits. Today, the share of the U.S. workforce employed in manufacturing has plummeted to less than one in ten workers.

It’s also important to address the gig economy, which is cited as evidence that younger workers have abandoned full-time, stable employment in favor of freelance or short-term work. But the data show this is not a dominant trend. Only 16 percent of Americans have participated in gig work, and just 3 percent of U.S. adults work full time in gig positions. Such a small percentage of the workforce cannot be driving large-scale changes in employment patterns across the American labor market.

Going Forward, Skip the Stereotypes

When Millennials entered the workforce around 2000, they did so during a strong economy and in large numbers, while later Millennials joined a weak job market and may have been waiting for the job market to recover to switch to the job they really wanted. That visibility may have amplified perceptions of mobility. But the data make one thing clear: Millennials and Gen Z aren’t changing jobs more than their predecessors did at similar life stages. Economic conditions, employee benefits, and industry structure drive turnover — not age or attitude.

If employers want to design benefits and workplaces that attract and retain talent, it’s important to move past generational myths. A data-driven approach will ensure that benefits align with how workers actually behave — not how stereotypes suggest they might.