U.K. Lords Committee urges Bank of England to refine forecasting after inflation missteps

LONDON – The Bank of England has faced criticism from the Lords Economic Affairs Committee for its reliance on inaccurate inflation forecasts and lack of intellectual diversity, which the committee believes contributed to the UK’s persistent high inflation rates. The committee, acknowledging the Bank’s role in strengthening economic confidence since its independence in 1998, called for modest changes to its operational approach.

The Lords committee pointed out that while unexpected events such as the conflict in Ukraine in February 2022 were unforeseeable, the ongoing high inflation, which surpassed 11% last year, was also a result of monetary policy errors. To address these concerns and enhance the accuracy of economic predictions, Ben Bernanke was brought on board by the Bank in July to revamp its forecasting models.

The committee highlighted that the Bank’s expanded responsibilities, including addressing climate change, may have diverted attention from its core mandates of financial stability and inflation management. Lord George Bridges emphasized the importance of learning from these mistakes to restore public trust.

In response to the post-pandemic recovery and global supply chain disruptions exacerbated by geopolitical tensions, notably Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the Bank raised interest rates in December 2021 when UK inflation exceeded 5%. However, expectations to curb inflation were not met due to ongoing supply chain challenges and the end of economic support measures such as the government’s furlough scheme.

The Bank’s primary goal is to maintain inflation close to a 2% target through the base interest rate, impacting lending and savings rates across the country. The Lords Economic Affairs Committee suggests that a reevaluation of the Bank’s remit by the Treasury could be necessary to ensure it remains focused on this objective.

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